The leadership is indeed now settled
Today's "secret ballot" initative by Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt appears already to have run into the snow. Hoon and Hewitt have chosen a desperate but inadequate dice to throw, have been outmaneouvred, and in any case have acted too late.
I understand the desperation. Although Gordon Brown's personal performance has improved and the fight is now being taken more effectively to the Conservatives, the truth remains that he as leader is the biggest drag on Labour's vote. The one thing the government could do to transform its chances at the general election would be to dump its leader. It should have done so last year. But for a pair of MPs with ministerial but Blairite pasts and no substantial political bases of their own, and who are both standing down from Parliament, to call for a transparent device to circumvent the normal consitutional rules, and for this call to be supported only by usual suspects like Charles Clarke and Frank Field - that, now, is surely too little to have real political effect. It can easily be characterised as "unconstitutional" and without doubt some constituency and union activists will be angered by the attempt to cut them out of the process. Those problems could be overcome if there were sufficient, directed momentum against Gordon Brown. There's clearly not. More seriously, though, their approach does nothing to resolve the question of who should succeed.
Second, it looks as though they've been wrong-footed. The timing of the coup, on this snowy day and immediately after Gordon Brown performed well at PMQs, seemed odd, and was odd. It could hardly have been more favourable to Downing Street. Perhaps they were somehow pre-empted or provoked to make their move when they did. Otherwise they made a mistake. Surely they should have waited at least for the immediate aftermath of some clear mis-step by Brown.
But in any case, this is too late. Labour should have replaced Gordon Brown some time ago, but the chance has gone, and they're stuck with him. Where were Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt last June, when James Purnell resigned? That was the chance to remove Brown. Hoon did resign from the Cabinet then in fact - but you, like me, may have missed that at the time. He said he was doing so for "family reasons", making no comment about Brown.
I suspect quite a few members and former members of the Cabinet suffer from a lack of political courage combined with a lack of political nous. It was obvious last June that that was the best, and last, chance to strike against Brown. I can understand the cowardice that led some people to do nothing then, although courage was surely easier for those whose careers were in any event ending and had nothing to lose, like Geoff Hoon. What I can't understand is their failing to realise that that inaction then was in effect a decision to go with Brown all the way.
The only thing that could seriously destablise the Prime Minister now would be either a major resignation - Alistair Darling's say, or Lord Mandelson's - or a direct challenge from David Miliband or Jon Cruddas. Mandelson and Darling back Brown. As far as Jon Cruddas is concerned, inaction makes sense: his goal of inheriting a left-shifting party this year depends on his having clean hands now.
Whether inaction makes sense for David Miliband, I don't know, and the question matters less than it did. He ought to have challenged last year, and his failure to do so was the outstanding failure of nous and courage. Now, he couldn't unseat Brown even if he did resign, and to do so would surely be mad. But his delay today in backing the Prime Minister makes his disloyalty clear, and damages his future. I think he missed his chance to be Prime Minister in 2009, and will never have as good a chance again.
If Hoon and Hewitt wanted, as they said, to settle the leadership issue one way or the other - well, they've succeeded in that.
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